Early 2026 Update

Global Cassava Starch
Industry Overview

Analysis of the 10-year price fluctuation cycle and the import-export supply chain status in the "Capital" of Thailand.

1. Price Fluctuation Cycle (2016 - Early 2026)

Reference: FOB Bangkok Price, Thailand (USD/Ton)

2016 - 2019

Stable & Abundant

~385 $

Abundant supply from Thailand & Vietnam, fully meeting Asian demand.

2020 - 2022

Covid-19 Shock

~485 $

Logistics disruption. Surging demand for medical (alcohol) and bioplastics.

2023 - 2024

Historical Peak

600+ $

El Nino, mosaic disease dropped production by 11%. Extreme supply shortage.

2025

Cooling Down

~455 $

Slight supply recovery, slower purchasing power from China.

Early 2026

Recovery & Bottoming Out

480-490 $

Decreased inventory, strong post-Lunar New Year F&B production demand.

2. Thailand Focus: Powerhouse & Weak Link

EXPORT

Strategic Spearhead ($1.2 Billion/year)

Export market share to China >60%

Largest customer, dominating regional prices.

Product Structure 2026

Native Starch ~60%
Modified Starch 31%

Trend of shifting to high-value products (pharmaceuticals, bioplastics).

IMPORT

The Weak Link (2026 Pressure)

Domestic Raw Material Shortage

Thailand must import nearly 22% of input materials (fresh roots, cassava chips) to maintain factory capacity.

  • Neighbor Dependence Lifeline heavily relies on cross-border imports from Cambodia and Laos.
  • Border Policy Volatility Early 2026, Thailand tightened imports from Cambodia to protect domestic farmers.
  • Advantage Shifting to Vietnam Cambodian cassava flows into Vietnam, creating a massive cost advantage for Vietnamese enterprises in early 2026 compared to Thailand.